From the moment he seized power in September 2021, Mamadi Doumbouya cut a striking and carefully choreographed figure in Guinea’s political life.
Just 36 years old at the time, the broad-shouldered colonel stood well over six feet tall, dressed in full military fatigues, mirrored sunglasses and a red beret as he announced the overthrow of President Alpha Condé. The imagery was unmistakable. A relatively unknown officer from an elite army unit, Doumbouya declared that Condé’s government had abandoned democratic principles and trampled on the rights of Guinean citizens.
More than four years later, after ruling as interim president and reneging on a pledge not to seek office, Doumbouya is poised to be sworn in on Saturday as Guinea’s elected head of state. Now 41, the discreet, disciplined and intensely private former colonel-turned-general secured 87% of the vote in December’s presidential election, according to official results, against a heavily weakened opposition field.
The vote, however, has been fiercely contested by critics. Former prime minister Cellou Dalein Diallo, now living in exile, dismissed the process as a “charade” that produced “fabricated” results. While Doumbouya appears to enjoy genuine popular backing, his democratic credentials remain under scrutiny. Political parties have been suspended, demonstrations banned, activists have disappeared under mysterious circumstances and media outlets have been closed.
A scroll through official social media accounts linked to the presidency reveals a meticulously curated transformation. The soldier who once embodied military authority has largely shed camouflage in favour of baseball caps, tracksuits or the flowing, embroidered boubou a traditional Guinean robe. The sunglasses still make occasional appearances.
Photographs and videos show him inaugurating schools, launching transport and mining infrastructure projects, or cycling through the streets of the capital, Conakry. The message is consistent and deliberate: this is a hands-on leader, visible, energetic and working in the interests of ordinary people.
“This was about presenting an image of someone who can be close to civilians a civilian leader who can represent the people,” said Beverly Ochieng, a senior analyst at the Dakar-based security intelligence firm Control Risks.
“In many ways, it distances him from what brought him to power a coup and from the fact that his entire career has been in the military.”
Before taking power, Doumbouya had spent 15 years building an unusually international military résumé. He was educated to master’s level in France and served in the French Foreign Legion. His deployments included Afghanistan, Ivory Coast, Djibouti and the Central African Republic, and he worked on close-protection assignments in Israel, Cyprus and the UK.
Yet some analysts question whether the shift in wardrobe reflects a genuine transition away from military rule.
“I’m not convinced he has truly transitioned from being a military man,” said Aïssatou Kanté, a researcher in the West Africa office of the Institute for Security Studies. “The military costume may disappear, but the military logic remains, even as he oversees a return to civilian order.”
She points to the continued ban on political demonstrations, the exclusion of Doumbouya’s main challengers from December’s election and the suspension of key opposition parties as evidence that power remains tightly controlled.
Human rights campaigners have also demanded answers about the fate of two prominent activists Oumar Sylla, widely known as Foniké Menguè, and Mamadou Billo Bah who have not been seen since July 2024. Supporters believe the men were detained by the military.
Press freedom organisation Reporters Without Borders has raised further alarm over the disappearance of journalist Habib Marouane Camara, missing for more than a year. The group says journalists increasingly censor themselves amid growing fear of reprisals.
Despite these concerns, Doumbouya has maintained a significant level of public support. The 2021 coup was widely welcomed at the time, reflecting frustration with Condé’s rule. Polling by Afrobarometer shows that between 2022 and 2024, the proportion of Guineans who trusted the president either “partially” or “a lot” rose from 46% to 53%.
Ideologically, Doumbouya does not fit neatly into a defined political framework. However, analysts say one theme dominates his rhetoric: sovereignty.
“It’s what keeps coming up in official speeches this affirmation of political and economic sovereignty,” Kanté noted.
In a New Year address, Doumbouya adopted a conciliatory tone, urging Guineans to unite and build a peaceful nation with “fully assumed” sovereignty. In a country grappling with entrenched poverty despite vast natural wealth including the world’s largest bauxite reserves, essential for aluminium production the message resonates.
That narrative is reinforced by government messaging around the Simandou iron-ore project in Guinea’s remote south. Containing an estimated three billion tonnes of high-grade ore, exports from Simandou began last month and could dramatically alter both Guinea’s economic fortunes and the global iron market.
Authorities say revenues from the project partly owned by Chinese mining firms and the British-Australian giant Rio Tinto will be channelled into transport infrastructure, healthcare and education. The project’s success, analysts say, may ultimately define Doumbouya’s presidency.
He has also signalled a determination to retain more processing and value-added activity within Guinea, aiming to ensure that resource wealth translates into domestic benefit. Across the mining sector, the government has cancelled dozens of contracts over the past year, arguing that companies failed to meet investment commitments a move that has already prompted one UAE-based firm to take Guinea to an international court.
“This shift toward resource nationalism makes him look like a local hero,” said Ochieng. “He appears to be fighting for the rights of citizens, even if that comes with business disruption.”
The sovereignty message also shapes Guinea’s foreign policy. Unlike several coup leaders elsewhere in West Africa, Doumbouya has not explicitly rejected France in favour of Russia. Nor, despite his French education and marriage to a French national, has he been portrayed as a proxy for Paris.
Instead, observers say, he is keen to project the image of an independent leader acting squarely in Guinea’s interests.
Come Saturday, the president will preach a message of national unity and will hope that he can usher in a new era of prosperity for Guinea.
From BBC
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