Director of the Public Sector Initiative at Lagos Business School, Professor Franklin Ngwu, has said President Bola Tinubu’s sweeping economic reforms were unavoidable but criticised their implementation, warning that poor sequencing has intensified hardship for ordinary Nigerians and widened the gap between macroeconomic gains and lived reality.
Speaking during an interview on ARISE News on Monday, Ngwu said while the reforms addressed deep structural distortions, their execution—particularly the floating of the naira—amplified inflation, unemployment and poverty.
“Did we need reforms? Yes, we needed reforms. But another issue is the way the reforms were implemented,” he said.
Ngwu noted that key indicators show mixed results, with improvements in government revenue and fiscal transparency offset by worsening social conditions.
“Revenue is increasing, yes. Some indicators look better on paper, but others are not looking better—unemployment, poverty, insecurity and the cost of living remain brutal,” he said.
He argued that the real test of reform lies in how Nigerians experience it, not just in macroeconomic data.
“The main issue is how ordinary Nigerians perceive and feel about these reforms. If you look at poverty and unemployment, the situation is getting worse. Reports suggest about 30 million Nigerians could fall into poverty this year,” Ngwu stated.
While agreeing that subsidy removal and foreign exchange unification were structurally sound policies, he said the decision to fully float the naira without safeguards was the central source of today’s economic pain.
“At the centre of all the pain we started feeling can be traced to the way the naira was floated. A managed float would have been a better option, where government intervenes to keep rates within a range,” he said.
Ngwu explained that the sharp devaluation triggered inflationary shocks across the economy.
“Before the reforms, the black market rate was around ₦700 to ₦800 to the dollar, while the official rate was about ₦450. If the transition had been managed properly, the naira might have settled at ₦800 or ₦900. Instead, everything skyrocketed—foreign exchange, inflation, transport costs, food prices,” he said.
Although the government says inflation is easing following a rebasing exercise, Ngwu questioned the credibility of those claims.
“We are told inflation is now around 15 per cent, but the reality is different. I bought cement for ₦9,800 in December and ₦10,200 a month later. So while inflation is said to be coming down, household experience does not reflect that,” he said.
He stressed that economic outcomes are shaped not only by policy choices but by politics and social realities.
“Economic policies are determined by politics, and politics is influenced by sociology. In Nigeria, policies are often pursued purely from an economic perspective without sufficient consideration of social impact,” Ngwu said.
On rising government revenue, he cautioned that higher inflows have not translated into improved welfare.
“Yes, revenue is up, but the cost of collection is also up. States and local governments are receiving more allocations, yet we are not seeing positive economic outcomes in people’s lives,” he said.
Ngwu called for a sharper focus on productive sectors, especially agriculture and manufacturing.
“Manufacturing contributes about 9 per cent to GDP, agriculture about 17 per cent. These are critical sectors. Without a clear industrial policy and coordinated agricultural strategy, growth will not translate into jobs or lower poverty,” he said.
He warned that Nigeria risks reform overload, arguing that too many reforms were introduced simultaneously.
“Reforms should be properly sequenced, timed and scaled. When you introduce too many reforms at once, it becomes like giving a patient an overdose of medication—you end up treating the side effects instead of the disease,” Ngwu said.
Looking ahead, he outlined what he believes should be the government’s top priorities.
“The priority should be to reduce insecurity, aggressively implement an industrial policy, and pursue an agro-industrial revolution. Without these, economic growth figures mean very little,” he said.
Ngwu also questioned the government’s celebration of modest GDP growth.
“Growing at four per cent is nothing to clap for when population growth is factored in. If Nigeria wants to achieve a one-trillion-dollar economy, GDP growth should be between 12 and 15 per cent,” he said.
He identified politics as the greatest threat to sustaining the reform agenda as the country approaches the 2027 elections.
“The biggest risk to these reforms is politics. In pre-election years, focus often shifts from governance to politics, and that distraction undermines economic management,” he warned.
Ngwu criticised state governments for weak performance, arguing that governance failures extend beyond the federal level.
“There is hardly any governor today who can clearly say they have created 10,000 jobs in the last three years. Some are trying, but overall performance has been poor,” he said.
As Nigerians prepare to judge the Tinubu administration, Ngwu said success will depend on tangible improvements, not rhetoric.
“The reforms will be judged on outcomes—jobs created, prices stabilised, insecurity reduced, and public trust restored. Nigerians expected outcomes, not just policies,” he said.
He added that inclusive growth across regions is essential for long-term stability.
“We need policies that bring inclusive and sustainable growth—whether through new seaports, gas infrastructure, agriculture or industrialisation—implemented with commitment and sincerity,” Ngwu concluded.
Boluwatife Enome
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