Research Professor at the Nigerian Institute of International Affairs, Prof Femi Otubanjo asserted that the ongoing war in the Middle East is needless and unprovoked driven more by geopolitical ambition and domestic political calculation than by any genuine security threat.
In an interview with ARISE NEWS on Tuesday, Otubanjo criticised the role of the United States and Israel in the conflict, arguing that Washington had been on the verge of signing an agreement on Iran’s nuclear programme before abruptly choosing war instead.
“It is a needless war. It is unprovoked. The point at which the United States declared war, they had come to an agreement. There was an agreement to be signed almost two days after, which had been brokered by Oman.”
He emphasised that Iran had already indicated it would halt uranium enrichment. “Actually Iran has said it will never, never enrich uranium, it will not develop nuclear weapons, and it will accept international inspection. According to what we have read, the agreement was waiting to be signed. They had been agreeing on the 27th. Trump says it was not good enough because he had a preconceived motive for going to war.”
Otibanjo framed the war as part of a long-term strategic agenda. “Israel will be the greatest winner in the overpowering of Iran. If Iran can be overpowered, if Iran can be conquered, if Iran has a regime change that brings in a regime that is friendly to the West. Israel has always believed in the agenda, the strategy of dismantling, destabilising, destroying, and they have succeeded.”
He referenced past American military interventions. “The idea is to destroy those seven countries so that they don’t become the vanguard of opposition to Israel. The countries of Iraq, of Syria, of Lebanon, there was Sudan, there was Yemen, and one other. And all those countries, I mean, Libya, all those countries today have been destabilised. Iran was the last one standing, and that’s what they are trying to do.”
Beyond Israel, he said the United States’ military-industrial complex benefits directly from war. “The stock of the defence contractors went up. The military industrial complex in America is a constant, and they always are looking for war, It’s an economy that is based on war. Trump himself has a lot to gain from this war. Because Trump is a delusional person. He thinks that America must use it to get whatever it wants.”
Drawing parallels with past US campaigns in Iraq and Afghanistan, Otubanjo warned that any ground invasion of Iran could drag on for years.
“In that area, the Americans went to Iraq. It took them eight years, They went to Afghanistan. It took 21 years, the longest war in American history… We are talking of Iran, it’s a bigger country.”
He emphasised Iran’s size, population and terrain as major obstacles. “Iran has 90 million people, It has mountains, it has deserts, it has glaciers, you are dealing with faith‑based fighters, There are people who are ready to commit suicide. Suicide bombers are the most dangerous fighters to confront.
The war will not end during Trump’s tenure. If it starts today, it will not end before he leaves office.”
On the global economic fallout, Otubanjo said disruption in the Strait of Hormuz would significantly impact oil transportation and insurance costs. “That will lead to increases in the cost of transportation of oil. They will now have to go around the Cape of Good Hope. Prices of oil will go up, insurance costs will go up.”
While oil-exporting countries might see short-term gains, he warned of broader economic consequences. “War does not give you a good economy.” It’s never been an easy thing to reconstruct the state after a war, particularly if you are going to be doing regime change, I’m not optimistic about it.”
He said any attempt to impose a new ruler would depend on developments on the ground. “If by any chance there’s a swirl of anti‑theocratic government in Iran, and if the Americans can put their soldiers on the ground and take over the capital it depends on what happens when you get there.”
Turning to Nigeria’s strategic posture, Otubanjo backed earlier calls by Professor Bolaji Akinyemi for Nigeria to pursue nuclear capability, arguing that the country missed a historic opportunity. “Quite honestly, Bolaji Akinyemi was right. The whole idea of the bomb at that time was to do structural development, If you are going to do a nuclear bomb, you have to do electricity, you have to do roads, This would have catalysed many developments. We lost that opportunity.”
“Quite honestly, Bolaji Akinyemi was right. The whole idea of the bomb at that time was to do structural development… If you are going to do a nuclear bomb, you have to do electricity, you have to do roads, This would have catalysed many developments. We lost that opportunity.”
He added that nuclear capability could have served as a deterrent. “It also guaranteed us that Trump would not be able to attack us if we were to be attacked If you are not at the table, you will be part of the menu.”
Erizia Rubyjeana
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