Tensions between nuclear-armed rivals India and Pakistan have surged to their highest point in years following a deadly attack on tourists in the disputed Kashmir region last week.
India has blamed Pakistan for backing the attackers, a charge Islamabad swiftly denied, reigniting a familiar but dangerous pattern of accusations and counter-accusations between the neighbors.
The fallout has been swift and severe. Both countries have expelled diplomats, downgraded ties, and threatened to suspend vital treaties. The crisis marks the most serious breakdown in relations since 2019, when a suicide bombing killed 40 Indian soldiers in Kashmir and nearly pushed the nations to the brink of war.
India has hinted at the possibility of a limited but imminent military strike. Pakistan has responded with a stark warning: it would retaliate militarily.
The standoff has renewed global focus on the two countries’ nuclear arsenals. While both India and Pakistan possess enough warheads to cause catastrophic destruction, their nuclear doctrines differ significantly. India follows a “no first use” policy, pledging to only deploy nuclear weapons in response to a nuclear attack. Pakistan, by contrast, adheres to a policy of “full spectrum deterrence,” which includes the possible use of tactical nuclear weapons in the face of conventional military threats.
Though think tanks estimate Pakistan has about 170 nuclear warheads and India roughly 172, the true numbers remain undisclosed. Both countries are not signatories to the global Non-Proliferation Treaty, but they do exchange annual lists of nuclear facilities as part of a long-standing bilateral agreement aimed at avoiding direct strikes on such sites.
Despite these mechanisms, border skirmishes remain common. In the latest crisis, Pakistan claims to have spotted Indian fighter jets over its airspace and says it has shot down Indian surveillance drones. India has not publicly confirmed these incidents.
There is growing domestic pressure within India to retaliate decisively, especially as most of the victims in the recent attack were Indian nationals. The memory of India’s 2019 predawn airstrike on a purported terrorist training camp in Pakistan — and the subsequent downing of Indian jets — looms large over this current moment.
Analysts believe that if a military response comes, it may be targeted along the volatile Line of Control in Kashmir, aimed at militant hideouts or army infrastructure. But even small-scale strikes risk spiraling into wider conflict due to the highly charged political atmosphere on both sides.
The international community is deeply concerned. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has vowed to reach out to both countries and urged global powers to help deescalate the situation. Gulf states allied with Pakistan have called for calm, while India has reportedly briefed G7 members on its position.
China, a key regional actor, has urged restraint, and the United Nations has made similar appeals. With ongoing wars in the Middle East and Ukraine and a fragile global economy, few have the appetite for a new conflict in South Asia.
Erizia Rubyjeana
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