Nigeria cannot achieve effective economic planning without accurate population statistics, analyst Dayo Sobowale has said, warning that unreliable census figures continue to undermine development efforts and public policy formulation in the country.
Speaking during an interview on ARISE News on Monday, Sobowale stressed that credible demographic data remains fundamental to governance, resource allocation and long-term economic planning. According to him, without a reliable population count, governments at all levels are forced to make decisions based on estimates that may not reflect the realities on the ground.
He explained that census data serves as a foundation for determining how national resources are distributed, how infrastructure projects are planned and how social services such as education, healthcare and housing are provided to citizens.
Sobowale noted that Nigeria’s census figures have historically been controversial because population statistics directly influence the sharing of federal allocations among states and regions. This, he said, has often led to concerns that census outcomes may be manipulated to favour particular areas.
According to him, the credibility of official population data has frequently been questioned, especially when some figures appear inconsistent with observable realities in certain parts of the country.
“We can never have good economic planning if we don’t have correct figures because we’ll be chasing shadows and we will not have true development,” Sobowale said.
He cited population figures previously attributed to parts of northeastern Nigeria as an example, arguing that the vast geographical spread of the region does not correspond with the population numbers that have often been reported.
Sobowale suggested that discrepancies in demographic statistics have created widespread doubts about the reliability of official figures used for national development planning.
“In the desert, animals don’t go there, and all of a sudden you say the population is several millions. It’s fraudulent statistics,” he said, stressing that such inconsistencies weaken confidence in the census process.
The analyst further noted that when census figures are inaccurate, government policies and development strategies risk being built on faulty assumptions, which can lead to inefficient use of public funds and poorly targeted development projects.
He said accurate population data is particularly important for economic planning because it helps policymakers understand the size of the labour force, forecast demand for infrastructure and social services, and determine where investments are most needed.
Sobowale also pointed out that credible census data is essential for planning in key sectors such as transportation, energy, agriculture and urban development, all of which depend on reliable demographic information.
Despite the challenges, he expressed cautious optimism that Nigeria could still conduct a credible census if there is sufficient political will from the country’s leadership.
According to him, a bold and determined approach would be required to address longstanding controversies surrounding census exercises and to ensure that the outcome of the process is widely accepted by Nigerians.
Sobowale acknowledged that security concerns in parts of the country could complicate the exercise, noting that areas affected by insurgency and banditry may pose risks for census officials attempting to access remote communities.
However, he argued that while the process may be logistically difficult and financially demanding, the cost of conducting a credible census should not discourage the government from undertaking the exercise.
He maintained that accurate population statistics remain indispensable for effective governance, noting that reliable demographic data provides the foundation for equitable resource distribution and sustainable national development.
Sobowale concluded that until Nigeria resolves the issue of credible census figures, economic planning will continue to face serious limitations, as policymakers will lack the reliable data needed to make informed decisions for the country’s future.
Triumph Ojo
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