China’s continued shipment of large numbers of internal combustion-engine (ICE) vehicles to Nigeria and other African markets is being driven less by a retreat from electric mobility than by a major restructuring of the Chinese automobile industry, with manufacturers increasingly looking overseas for markets, revenue and capacity utilisation.
The development has important implications for Nigeria, where weak charging infrastructure, unreliable electricity supply, high vehicle acquisition costs and limited consumer purchasing power continue to constrain the mass adoption of electric vehicles (EVs).
China has become the world’s dominant vehicle manufacturing base while simultaneously undergoing one of the fastest transitions from petrol and diesel vehicles to new-energy vehicles. The result is a growing pool of conventional vehicles that manufacturers can still sell profitably in markets where the transition to electric mobility is slower.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) said Chinese vehicle exports increased sharply in the first half of 2026 as domestic sales weakened, with total Chinese car exports rising 65 per cent year-on-year. Although electric-car exports grew even faster, ICE vehicles remain a major component of China’s overseas shipments.
For Africa, the continent’s relatively young motorisation market makes it particularly attractive, according to IEA. Unlike Europe and some Asian markets, where stringent emissions regulations and EV incentives are accelerating the replacement of petrol and diesel vehicles, many African countries still depend heavily on conventional vehicles, particularly imported used cars.
Nigeria is a major example. The country’s vehicle market remains overwhelmingly dependent on petrol and diesel technology, while the infrastructure required for large-scale EV adoption is still developing.
China’s strategy therefore allows its automakers to serve different markets according to their level of technological transition. EVs can be targeted at markets with adequate charging networks and supportive policies, while ICE vehicles can continue flowing into markets where consumers prioritise affordability, driving range, easy access to mechanics and the availability of fuel.
There is also a broader industrial dimension. China’s highly competitive automobile industry has experienced intense price competition and excess production capacity. Overseas markets provide manufacturers with an outlet for vehicles that may face declining demand at home.
The IEA noted that Chinese automakers are increasingly relying on overseas markets as domestic growth slows, with major manufacturers setting ambitious export targets.
For Nigeria, the influx presents both opportunities and risks.
On the positive side, increased Chinese competition could make vehicles more affordable, expand consumer choice and force established global brands to reduce prices. It could also create opportunities for local assembly, component manufacturing, servicing and technical employment if Nigeria successfully links vehicle imports to an industrialisation strategy.
But continued dependence on ICE imports could also slow Nigeria’s own transition to cleaner transportation.
Nigeria’s Energy Transition Plan envisages a gradual shift towards electric mobility, while the country’s automotive policy seeks greater local vehicle production and increased EV manufacturing. The Nigerian Automotive Industry Development Plan, for instance, targets 30 per cent of locally produced vehicles being electric by 2032.
The danger, therefore, is that Nigeria could become a dumping ground for ageing or declining ICE technology just as major manufacturers are moving their technological investments towards batteries, software and electric drivetrains.
There is also an environmental and economic cost. Continued dependence on petrol and diesel vehicles means higher exposure to fuel-price shocks, import dependence and transport-sector emissions.
Yet the answer is not necessarily to shut the door on Chinese ICE vehicles immediately. Nigeria’s transition must reflect its infrastructure realities. The government would need to expand charging infrastructure, stabilise electricity supply, establish battery and vehicle standards, develop local technical capacity and create incentives for manufacturers to assemble EVs locally.
Importantly, 2035 is not a blanket deadline for China to stop producing or exporting every ICE vehicle.
China’s official New Energy Vehicle Industry Development Plan says that by 2035, electric vehicles are expected to become the mainstream of new vehicle sales, while public transportation is expected to be fully electrified.
A 2025 Chinese transport-energy guideline similarly states that by 2035, pure electric vehicles should become the mainstream of new vehicle sales.
China’s target is market dominance by new-energy vehicles, not an announced universal ban on ICE vehicles by 2035. Conventional vehicles can therefore continue to be manufactured, sold or exported, particularly to markets such as Africa where demand remains strong.
For Nigeria, this creates a policy dilemma: Chinese ICE vehicles may provide immediate, relatively affordable mobility, but an uncontrolled influx could lock the country into on Friday’s automotive technology just as the world’s largest vehicle manufacturing power accelerates towards tomorrow’s.
Reacting, Dr Femi Eguaikhide, Chairman Auto and allied sector LCCI, gave his informed opinion on this development saying, “On the mass influx of Chinese ICE vehicles: we welcome competition, we reject dumping.”
He explained: “Let me be clear, we are not anti-China. We are pro-Nigeria. “We welcome Chery, Jetour, GAC, Changan, Geely, BYD. Their arrival has forced prices down. A Nigerian can now buy a brand new SUV for N28m instead of N55m. That is good for the consumer. Competition is good.
But what we are seeing today is not competition. It is dumping.
In 9 months of 2026:
- Jetour: +340.5%
- GAC: +247.2%
- Changan: +216.7%
These are not assembled in Nigeria. Over 95% are imported fully built. Meanwhile, our own assemblers – Innoson in Nnewi, PAN in Kaduna, Nord in Lagos, Stallion in Lagos – are operating at less than 20% capacity.
China is moving to EVs at home and pushing its excess ICE production to Africa. Nigeria is becoming the dumping ground.
“Why should a Chinese company pay 20% duty to bring a fully built car, while a Nigerian assembler pays 30% interest, pays for diesel, pays for FX at N1,600, and still has to compete?”
He said, “That is not a level playing field. That is policy failure.
“Our position is:
- If you want to sell more than 1,000 cars a year in Nigeria, you must assemble in Nigeria within 3 years.
- If you sell cars in Nigeria, you must guarantee parts for 10 years and train Nigerian technicians.
- Nigeria should not replace tokunbo dependence with Chinese dependence.
He also addressed policy gap, saying,
“On Policy: We Need Predictability, Not Waivers.”
He stated that, “The biggest enemy of our sector is not China. It is our own policy inconsistency.
“The National Automotive Industry Development Plan (NAIDP) says 35% for fully built, 10% for SKD, 5% for CKD. In practice, waivers are given to a few importers to bring fully built cars at 20%. That single waiver kills 10 assemblers.”
He gave a breakdown of what he believes is sustainable:
a) Zero Waivers for Fully Built Cars. Publish all waivers. No secret waivers.
b) 10-Year Policy Lock. No investor will build a $50m assembly plant if policy can change in 6 months. Lock it.
Local Parts Manufacturing. Nigeria imports $180m in parts from China, $61m from Japan. We must give Pioneer Status to local brake pad, filter, battery and tyre manufacturers. And we must enforce SON standards – 60% of parts in our markets are fake.”
Bennett Oghifo
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