China has introduced a 13% sales tax on contraceptives from 1 January, while exempting childcare services, in a bid to address its declining birth rates. The reform is part of a broader tax overhaul that removes long-standing exemptions dating back to the one-child policy era and includes relief for marriage-related services and elderly care.
Experts said the measures reflect Beijing’s urgent efforts to encourage young people to marry and have children, as population figures show China’s births have declined for three consecutive years, with only 9.54 million babies born in 2024.
“The idea that a tax hike on condoms will impact birth rates is overthinking it,” said demographer Yi Fuxian from the University of Wisconsin-Madison. He added that the government may also be motivated by revenue collection, as VAT brought in nearly $1tn last year.
Observers warn the move could have unintended consequences. “Making contraception, which is a necessity, more expensive could mean students or those struggling financially take a risk,” said Rosy Zhao, a resident of Xi’an. Some citizens expressed ridicule and concern over condom costs, highlighting that expensive childcare remains the bigger barrier to having children.
Economists note that China’s policy may clash with social realities, including women juggling work and parenting and rising economic pressures from the property market and stagnant wages. “Young people today deal with way more stress from society than people did 20 years ago. Everyone’s just exhausted,” said Daniel Luo from Henan province.
China’s approach echoes challenges faced by other ageing nations, such as South Korea and Japan, where declining birth rates persist despite government incentives. Analysts caution that symbolic measures like taxing condoms may not be enough to reverse deep-seated demographic trends without addressing childcare affordability, work-life balance, and societal expectations.
Erizia Rubyjeana
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