Amazon expects the first “commercially useful” quantum computers to emerge within the next five to seven years, according to the company’s top artificial intelligence executive, who said the technology could then advance at a pace similar to the historic growth of semiconductor capabilities.
Peter DeSantis, who recently assumed leadership of a new Amazon division overseeing AI models, chips and quantum computing, made the prediction during an interview on Wednesday, marking the first time the company has publicly provided a timeline for the arrival of practical quantum computing.
“I actually do believe, over the next five-to-seven years, we’re going to start to see the first commercially useful small-scale quantum computers,” DeSantis said.
“From there, we’re going to see something that looks a lot like Moore’s Law, where they’re going to get bigger and bigger every year, and they’re going to be able to tackle more and more interesting problems,” he said.
Moore’s Law refers to the observation that the number of transistors on a computer chip doubles roughly every two years, driving continuous improvements in computing power.
DeSantis sought to clarify common misconceptions surrounding quantum computing, stressing that its value does not lie in simply making today’s computers faster.
“One of the misnomers is a quantum computer is going to be a faster computer, that’s not it at all. A quantum computer is going to solve a very particular type of problem that isn’t solved well today with a classic computer, and it’s going to solve it much better,” he said.
Quantum computing advocates argue that the technology will eventually solve problems that are beyond the capabilities of conventional computers.
Unlike classical computers, which process information using bits that exist as either a one or a zero, quantum computers use quantum bits, or qubits, which can exist as zero, one, or a combination of both states simultaneously.
The race to develop practical quantum computers has intensified in recent years, with major technology companies including Microsoft, Google and IBM, alongside numerous startups, investing heavily in the field.
Amazon itself entered the competition more aggressively last year when it unveiled Ocelot, its quantum computing chip designed to address error correction — one of the most significant technical challenges facing the development of reliable quantum machines.
DeSantis’ forecast places Amazon somewhere in the middle of the industry’s wide-ranging predictions about when quantum computing will become commercially viable.
In March last year, a Google quantum executive said that practical applications beyond the reach of modern computers could be achieved within five years. Microsoft has said it believes it will have a commercially viable quantum machine by 2029.
By contrast, Nvidia Chief Executive Officer Jensen Huang unsettled quantum computing stocks last year when he suggested that 15 years would “probably be on the early side” for useful quantum computers, although he later softened those remarks.
DeSantis said the earliest practical applications of quantum computing are likely to emerge in fields that naturally align with the technology’s strengths.
“The problems that I would think are going to be tackled first are the ones that are quantum-based problems, so things like chemistry, material science,” DeSantis said on Wednesday.
“These are the problems where today we cannot run high enough fidelity simulations in a classic computer, and once we have a quantum computer, we’re going to find some real progress,” he said.
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Boluwatife Enome
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