The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) may be compelled to beat a retreat from its earlier stance to force the military junta which overthrew the elected president of Niger Republic, Mohamed Bazoum to hand back power to him.
The leadership under the chairmanship of Nigerian President Bola Ahmed Tinubu had after a meeting at Abuja on Sunday 30th July, 2023, given an ultimatum of seven days which expired on Sunday for the junta to return power back to Bazoum or be forced out through measures that may include deployment of military personnel.
The decision of the sub-regional leaders was largely welcomed by the Western world but has however been condemned by a section of Nigeriens who feel that diplomatic action rather than military action should be taken.
Also the Nigerien junta has beem emboldened by fellow juntas who had earlier taken over reins in Burkina Faso, Mali and Guinea all voicing their support for the coupists and expressing their readiness to contribute military personnel to fight the ECOWAS force.
There was also a joint statement read on Mali and Burkina Faso national broadcasting outfits, with wordings: “Mali and Burkina Faso warn that any military intervention in Niger will be considered as a declaration of war against Burkina Faso and Mali.”
If that was not enough that the military expedition by ECOWAS was likely to hit the rocks from the initial stage, there were indications that the Russian government and Russian Wagner mercenaries were ready to support and even fight on the side of the junta.
As this was going on Tinubu move against the coup which initially commenced with cutting off electricity supply to Niger, an agreement which has been for ages and was initiated to dissuade Niger from damming the River Niger.
Meanwhile there is some opposition to Tinubu’s to possibly lead a military expedition into Niger, a country with socio-cultural and ancestral links with Northern Nigeria and borders which are largely porous stretching across 7 states.
The President however sought the approval of the National Assembly to back the ECOWAS resolution, but was urged to seek a diplomatic solution to the crisis.
This may have spelt an end to the military expedition of ECOWAS to Niger as the subregional body which was accused by many to heeding to the pressure of Western powers to wage war on Niger may not be able to assemble a force of note and may even not be able to put together the resources needed for such an expensive enterprise.
There are also indications that there was little success recorded from the diplomatic move of Tinubu which saw him sending former Head of State Abdulsalami Abubakar and the Sultan of Sokoto as diplomatic ties have reportedly been severed by the two neighbouring nations.
The argument of traducers of the proposed military expedition to Niger is why Niger and not the other West Africa states under military rule if not because of the West pushing the West African leaders into their fight for the struggle for the uranium in Niger.
Niger is the world’s seventh-biggest producer of uranium, the radioactive metal widely used for nuclear energy and treating cancer.
Presently, the United States and former colonial power France have troops in Niger and had been working with the government to overcome an Islamist insurgency by groups linked to Islamic State and al Qaeda. This is definitely at a risk with the latest political situation of the country which is tilting towards Russia.
With four takeovers in neighbouring Mali and Burkina Faso during the last two years, all of which have come amid frustrations about growing insecurity, and the two countries having turned increasingly towards Russia as an ally, the fear is that the latest addition of the coupist General Abdourahamane Tiani, in the fray may encourage some more West African countries to go the way of military rule using the excuse of poor governance and discontent with the way Islamist threats are being handled and subsequently seek support from Russia and make West Africa the new battle ground for the growing multipolar battle that is already in Ukraine and threatening Taiwan.
The supporters of the junta have already burnt French flags and attacked the French embassy in Niger’s capital, Niamey, prompting police to fire volleys of tear gas in response.
Yevgeny Prigozhin, the head of Russia’s Wagner mercenary group, has welcomed the coup in Niger, and said his forces were available to restore order.
However the Kremlin had also said that the situation in Niger was “cause for serious concern” and called for a swift return to constitutional order.
As it stands, the planned military expedition by ECOWAS may be on hold, but one thing is certain the country may be pressured by sanctions already imposed by European Union and ECOWAS.
Both the EU and France have backed the ECOWAS response, suspending their own financial support, while the U.S. has threatened to do same.
“The EU and Niger share deep ties developed over decades. The unacceptable attack on the democratically elected government puts these ties in jeopardy,” European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen posted on X, the platform formerly known as Twitter.
After days of turmoil, the International Monetary Fund said it was closely monitoring developments in Niger. But the IMF has not yet taken any specific actions in response to the coup.
It has yet to disburse a $131.5 million loan to Niger that was approved on July 5, it added.
The regional central bank has meanwhile cancelled Niger’s planned 30 billion CFA ($51 million) bond issuance, scheduled for Monday in the West African regional debt market, following sanctions, it was gathered.
The military may find it difficult to get to Niger, but definitely the financial war is on and it would be a tough task for the government of already poor Niger to hold on.
Nigeria cannot be truly free from the Niger question as hungry visitors should be expected to cross over the border, it is hoped that criminality does not also get to cross over into our country which is already under the shackles of insecurity.
Michael Olugbode in Abuja
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