Professor of Economics and Public Policy, Univeristy of Uyo, Akpan Ekpo asserted that Nigeria’s proposed 2026 budget raises fundamental questions about realism, credibility and the country’s capacity to translate ambitious figures into tangible economic outcomes.
Speaking In an interview with ARISE NEWS on Monday, Ekpo said although some of the benchmarks contained in the budget appear achievable on paper, the broader macroeconomic outlook remains fragile due to persistent structural weaknesses, poor implementation culture and excessive reliance on oil revenues and security challenges.
“You cannot grow an economy if you have an epileptic power supply.”
Ekpo said the projected economic growth rate of just under four percent represents only marginal improvement and falls far short of what is required to meaningfully reduce poverty. “An economy has to grow at least double digits, and that’s for a long period, for you to say that you are able to have a dent on poverty,” he said, adding that the current projections were “not something to celebrate.”
He described the continued practice of operating overlapping budgets as economically unsound, noting that Nigeria has carried the 2024 budget into 2025 and is set to roll it further into 2026. “Running two or three budgets in one year doesn’t make any sense.”
While welcoming the President’s indication that the budgets would be harmonised into a single framework by March, Ekpo said the benefit would only materialise if the process was fully implemented. “It’s good to have a single window.”
Ekpo identified implementation as the most critical weakness in Nigeria’s budgeting process, arguing that budgets are often well-articulated but poorly executed. “The problem has been the implementation of all our budgets. we take it, we don’t take it serious.”
He expressed concern about the sluggish performance of capital expenditure, pointing out that only about 17 percent of the 2025 capital budget had been released by the third quarter. “It doesn’t make sense. In 2025, you’ve already released 17.7% and now you’re projecting 44, I think it is 44% of capital released for next year. It’s quite ambitious. It is a tall order.”
Despite these concerns, he acknowledged that the higher capital allocation estimated at about 44 percent of the total budget was a positive signal. “If we can stick to that and implement that, it will help the economy.”
Ekpo warned that Nigeria’s heavy dependence on oil remains a major vulnerability, stressing that oil prices and production levels are volatile and largely determined by global forces. “You don’t control the price, you don’t control the output. It depends on global dynamics.”
He also raised concerns about the growing burden of debt servicing. “That’s quite high, you know.”
On sectoral priorities, Ekpo said allocations to security, infrastructure, education and health were inadequate relative to Nigeria’s challenges. “Security is very, very crucial. But look at the percentages, the amount allocated. For security, which is 9.29% of the total budget. Look at infrastructure, 6.1%. That is quite low. Look at education, 6.2%. And even health, 4.2%.”
“You cannot grow an economy if you have an epileptic power supply, We are still running a generator-driven economy. Because if power increases by 1%, then your GDP will grow by 3.5%.”
He also questioned the lack of transparency and clarity in budget data, pointing to inconsistencies between official revenue claims and actual releases. “Well, it’s not that, Yeah, it’s that there’s not much transparency in terms of the numbers, Anybody, even if it’s passing the law, it is still an estimate. And it’s for Nigerians, fairly relevant stakeholders to interrogate to make sure that it makes sense.”
Erizia Rubyjeana
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