Economist Professor Akpan Ekpo has warned that the 15 per cent tariff imposed on Nigerian exports to the United States will heighten global economic uncertainty and expose Nigeria’s vulnerability, despite oil and gas being exempted.
Speaking in an interview with ARISE News on Wednesday, Ekpo said President Donald Trump’s trade policy, formalised through a July 31 executive order, was “creating distortions in the global system” and would disrupt supply chains, even in countries not directly targeted.
“President Trump has created a major problem for the global economy. He is obsessed with tariffs. Tariffs are clearly a tax, as we all know, and they have implications for the US economy, for the world economy, and, to some extent, Nigeria,” he said.
“No matter how he describes it, it will lead to higher prices because companies will pass some of that tax to consumers. The biggest thing he has created is uncertainty in the global system. Even countries paying a lower 10 per cent duty will be affected because global trade is interconnected. That uncertainty will disrupt the global supply chain.”
Although Nigeria’s main export to the US is crude oil and gas — which are exempt from the new tariff — Ekpo stressed that the wider economic impact would still be felt.
“Our non‑oil export is very minimal. But when there is global uncertainty, we are also dealing with other countries. Any country with abundant resources like Nigeria must build a strong, resilient economy that can absorb any shock that comes from anywhere,” he said.
He noted that Washington’s trade war with Beijing, temporarily paused until August 12, underscored the strategic caution required in dealing with China. “China is a very robust, strong economy and can dictate what it wants. For us, we don’t have a strong economy to withstand the global uncertainty Trump has created. We have to build a strong Nigerian economy — we have what it takes to do that,” Ekpo said.
Responding to comparisons with Kenya and Morocco, which are seeking opportunities to reposition their economies despite lower tariffs, Ekpo insisted that Nigeria must first address structural weaknesses.
“No country wants a trade war. I’m surprised that countries have not retaliated against the US. Even before these tariffs, blocs like BRICS were challenging the strength of the dollar. In the long term, that will be a major development. Countries like Kenya are beginning to trade in non‑dollar currencies as part of non‑alignment.
“In Africa, we are not united. If we were, we could fight as a bloc. Unfortunately, even the African Continental Free Trade Area has not taken a decisive role. As a country, we have to work towards being industrialised so we can withstand external shocks, whether positive or negative.”
On agriculture, Ekpo dismissed official claims of productivity gains. “If there is any marginal increase in agriculture, it is due to rainfall and nature, not science. Insecurity has worsened production. Nigeria’s manufacturing sector has contributed less than 12 per cent to GDP since 1963. For a strong economy, manufacturing and its value chain must contribute at least 40 per cent. Services now account for 55 per cent of GDP, but that is a false narrative because it is not linked to manufacturing, agriculture or mining,” he explained.
Ekpo also criticised Nigeria’s debt policy, warning that borrowing without transparency and clear productive targets would endanger future generations.
“In Nigeria, the debt profile is increasing. GDP does not pay debt — revenue does. Our revenue base is unstable because it depends on oil prices we cannot control. We are told borrowings are for infrastructure, but past evidence shows borrowing to finance recurrent expenditure. Borrowing is inter‑generational. Those borrowing today will not pay; our grandchildren will. If you borrow to ensure 24‑hour power supply, the economy will grow, but I am not sure that has been done holistically,” he said.
He cautioned against celebrating foreign reserves that are still dependent on crude oil.
“Reserves are only meaningful when they come from producing and exporting non‑oil goods and services. We must have a productive economy where reserves are not tied solely to crude exports,” he said.
On the exchange rate, Ekpo argued that the naira is not truly market‑determined and requires a managed float.
“The claim that the naira’s value is market‑determined doesn’t make sense. Our currency is not convertible, and we are not productive. The supply curve in the forex market is not well‑behaved. If the central bank pulls out, the market will collapse. Stability must be questioned: at what level and in whose interest? At N1,500 to the dollar, the rate is too high and has passed through to inflation, hurting the poor and wiping out the middle class,” he said.
Ekpo also rejected praise from the IMF and World Bank for Nigeria’s reforms.
“I have never been a supporter of IMF and World Bank policies. Their major interest is to keep economies dependent and underdeveloped. They talk about space to borrow because they look at debt‑to‑GDP, but revenue‑to‑debt shows we are in trouble. Unfortunately, borrowing today is not transparent and is not delivering real growth.”
He warned that the government’s focus on revenue mobilisation without productive investment was misguided.
“If you are increasing revenue just to give to your political class, to waste or to service debt, it makes no sense. You must ask what you are getting in return,” Ekpo said.
Boluwatife Enome
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