The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) has emerged as the leading party in state elections in northeastern Germany, dealing a historic blow to Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s conservative party.
The AfD was projected to win 38.3% of the vote in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, ahead of the centre-left Social Democrats (SPD) on 35.4%, according to projections by public broadcaster ARD.
Merz’s conservatives had fallen to 4.9%, below the 5% threshold required to enter the state parliament. The result would mark the party’s worst performance in a state election since 1949.
“It’s a disaster,” Merz said after the exit polls were published, although he signalled he would fight on as chancellor and continue his reform agenda after speculation that a bad result could prompt him to resign.
The result marks the AfD’s second first-place finish in a German state election this month. The party also leads national opinion polls but has remained outside government because other major parties have refused to form coalitions with it.
In Berlin, the far-left Linke was projected to take first place with 25.3%, while Merz’s conservatives fell to 19%. The AfD also increased its support in the traditionally liberal capital, reaching 16.3%.
The result was another setback for Merz, who was elected chancellor last year on a promise to revive Germany’s sluggish economy through reforms. His government has faced criticism over pension, tax and healthcare reforms, while rising energy and housing costs have added to voter dissatisfaction.
“It will now become even more difficult for the federal government to muster the courage and political support for a fundamental reform programme,” Marcel Fratzscher, president of the Berlin-based DIW research institute, told Reuters.
If the ruling coalition parties stick to their red lines, he said, “political paralysis will become entrenched, economic weakness will persist, and the likelihood of an AfD election victory in 2029 will rise further.”
The SPD’s popular state premier in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, Manuela Schwesig, had climbed in the polls ahead of Sunday’s vote by openly criticising both the AfD and the Merz-led federal government’s reforms.
Schwesig also said the AfD had won votes by criticising Germany’s support for Ukraine. She had supported the Nord Stream pipelines carrying Russian gas through her Baltic Sea coast state into Germany before they were blown up in 2022, but later changed her position.
“First, in my state, many people oppose support for Ukraine, both financial and military,” she said.
“And a second point: Many people also wish to see energy flowing through Nord Stream again.”
German Vice-Chancellor Lars Klingbeil, who is also the SPD leader, signalled he wanted a change of course, citing voters’ concerns over pension reforms.
Merz instead doubled down on his reform agenda, saying the measures were necessary to revive growth in Europe’s largest economy.
“What needs to be done now requires backbone, steadfastness, and patience,” he said. “I would go so far as to say that these reforms are the antidote to the authoritarian poison that is penetrating ever deeper into our society, driven by the allure of authoritarianism.”
The elections in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, a largely rural state in the formerly communist east, and Berlin followed the September 6 election in Saxony-Anhalt, where the AfD also finished first.
In just over a decade, the party, which supports tougher action to deport foreigners without the right to remain in Germany, restore energy ties with Russia and leave the euro, has grown from a fringe eurosceptic movement into Germany’s most popular party in national polling.
Its strong showing in Saxony-Anhalt, which the party sees as a step towards the 2029 federal election, has increased pressure on Germany’s established parties.
Sunday’s results have also renewed questions over the so-called “firewall” strategy, under which the major parties refuse to enter coalition agreements with the AfD.
Merz has struggled to win over voters since taking office, with communication missteps adding to opposition to his government’s economic and social reforms.
Discontent with his government was a major issue during the campaigns in both Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania and Berlin, where voters raised concerns over energy and housing costs.
Merz presented a consumer relief package on Friday that included tax cuts on gas and diesel.
Several voters in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania said the cost of living was a major concern.
“Here in Schwerin, with these wages, you can hardly afford anything anymore,” voter Carlotta Heick told Reuters in the state capital.
One elderly man criticised funding for foreign aid.
“We need our money here, for our country, for children and pensioners,” he said, asking not to give his name.
The election results leave Merz facing renewed pressure as he seeks to maintain support for his government’s reform programme while the AfD continues to gain ground in state and national polling.
Faridah Abdulkadiri
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