Former Managing Director/Chief Executive, Nigeria Export Processing Zones Authority (NEPZA), Professor Adesoji Adesugba, on Tuesday warned that the country’s ambition of building a $1 trillion economy by 2030 might be delayed till 2040 because of the current slow growth trajectory.
Adesugba said to meet the initial target, the country needed an annual growth of about 28 per cent in dollar terms.
He spoke while delivering the 20th anniversary lecture of Commerce and Industry Correspondents Association of Nigeria (CICAN) in Abuja.
Adesugba said though the country had made progress in stabilising its economy, it was yet to achieve transformation on the scale demanded by the target.
According to him, Nigeria’s economy, estimated to be between $285 billion and $291 billion in 2025, would need to more than triple in dollar terms within five years to meet the 2030 deadline.
He described the $1 trillion objective as a mobilisation target rather than a forecast, insisting that its success would depend less on official announcements than on the quality of policy execution.
Adesugba said, “The $1 trillion economy is best understood not as a forecast but as a mobilisation target, and it will be won or lost on the quality of implementation rather than the quality of announcements.
“Reaching $1 trillion by 2030 from that base requires the economy to more than triple in dollar terms within five years, an average expansion of about 28 per cent a year in dollar terms.”
He said maintaining real growth of between four and 4.5 per cent, alongside moderate inflation and gradual naira depreciation, could leave the economy at $450 billion by 2030, postponing the trillion-dollar milestone until around 2040.
Accelerating real growth towards six to seven per cent, with a broadly stable currency, could raise the economy to about $585 billion by 2030 and bring the target within reach around 2034, he said.
Even a highly optimistic scenario involving stronger growth and real exchange-rate appreciation would produce an economy of approximately $773 billion by 2030, according to his estimates.
The implication, he said, was that Nigeria could not rely on currency appreciation or changes in nominal GDP to manufacture the appearance of economic expansion without a corresponding increase in production, productivity and employment.
According to the First Deputy President of Abuja Chamber of Commerce and Industry (ACCI), “A trillion-dollar economy built on a strong naira and weak factories would be a statistical achievement, not an economic one.”
Stabilisation gains yet to translate into productive investment
Adesugba acknowledged recent improvements in the macro-economy, including second-quarter 2026 real GDP growth of 4.43 per cent, first-half growth of 4.16 per cent, and a decline in headline inflation to 14.63 per cent in September.
He also cited external reserves of $55.25 billion and a narrower gap between official and parallel foreign exchange markets as evidence that the reform programme was yielding stabilisation gains.
However, Adesugba warned that the composition of capital inflows, inadequate electricity supply, and weak industrial expansion continued to undermine the economy’s capacity to generate sustainable growth.
Capital importation reached $10.37 billion in the first quarter of 2026, but Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) accounted for only $135.08 million, representing 1.3 per cent of the total.
Also, about 73 per cent of the inflows went into the banking sector, while manufacturing attracted about 1.5 per cent and agriculture barely a third of one per cent, he said.
Adesugba distinguished between portfolio capital, which could help stabilisefinancial markets, and direct investment, which created productive assets, expanded factories, and generated jobs.
He stated that Nigeria risked losing some of its portfolio inflows as interest rates declined unless improved macroeconomic conditions translated into longer-term investments in manufacturing, agriculture, mining, logistics, and other productive sectors.
Power deficit constrains industrial expansion
The power sector presented another major constraint, he said, adding that though installed grid capacity stood at 13,625 megawatts, average available capacity was only 4,758MW in August 2026, forcing businesses to rely on expensive alternative energy sources.
“No economy of 220 million people has ever approached a trillion dollars on five gigawatts of grid power,” he said.
He called for electricity reforms to be treated as a central economic priority, including stronger gas-to-power arrangements, transmission investment, accelerated metering, and the development of state-level electricity markets under the Electricity Act 2023.
Poverty reduction must accompany economic growth
Beyond infrastructure, Adesugba cautioned that economic growth would have limited social value if it failed to reduce poverty and improve household welfare.
Citing World Bank estimates, he said about 140 million Nigerians, representing 63 per cent of the population, lived below the national poverty line in 2025, while food inflation of nearly 20 per cent continued to squeeze household purchasing power.
He proposed a set of verifiable milestones to complement the 2030 target, including an interim $500 billion economy, sustained real GDP growth of at least six per cent, FDI exceeding 10 per cent of capital importation, reliable grid availability of at least 8,000MW, and headline inflation in single digits.
He pointed out that such benchmarks would make it possible for citizens, investors, and the media to assess progress objectively rather than relying on declarations of intent.
Adesugba urges policy continuity, stronger coordination
Adesugba also urged the federal government to maintain policy continuity through the 2027 electoral cycle, warning that a reversal of reforms can weaken investor confidence.
He called for stronger coordination between fiscal and monetary authorities, fair implementation of the new tax laws, improved revenue transparency and greater mobilisation of state governments to attract investment and expand productive activities.
He further advocated repositioning the country’s special economic and free trade zones as export-manufacturing and value-addition hubs linked to the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA).
The organised private sector, banks, labour unions, the academia, and development partners, he said, must also contribute through long-term financing, evidence-based policy advocacy, industry-linked research, skills development, and investment in productive capacity.
Proposes CICAN $1tn economy tracker
Adesugba proposed that CICAN establish a quarterly $1 trillion economy tracker to independently monitor real growth, dollar GDP, FDI, electricity availability, inflation, manufacturing output, employment, and poverty.
He said the initiative, alongside an economic reporting fellowship and an annual real-economy forum, could provide a sustained mechanism for measuring government performance against published milestones.
He also called for greater protection of journalists, timely access to official data, and stronger investment in specialist economic reporting.
He stated that credible journalism was essential to public understanding, investor confidence, and policy accountability.
Adesugba stressed that the country’s success should not be measured solely by whether it attained the $1 trillion mark in 2030 or a few years later, but by whether it built an economy capable of sustaining that scale of output while creating jobs and reducing poverty.
“Nigeria will not report its way to a trillion dollars. But it cannot get there without being reported honestly,” he said.
Kuma challenges stakeholders
Earlier, CICAN Chairman, Gabriel Kuma, said the association’s 20th anniversary should serve as a renewed commitment to responsible and courageous economic journalism.
He challenged government, public agencies and industry to improve transparency and engagement with the media, while urging stakeholders to strengthen specialist journalism and its contribution to national economic development.
Kuma said the real test of the anniversary would be whether economic policies became more closely connected to the prosperity Nigerians deserved, adding that CICAN is ready to meet the challenge.
James Emejo
Follow us on:
